Current View
The evidence from Disaster Diplomacy studies so far suggests that, while disaster-related activities do not create fresh diplomatic opportunities, they have the possibility of catalyzing action, although that possibility is not always fulfilled. The three outcomes from Disaster Diplomacy work so far are:
- In the short-term--on the order of weeks and months--disaster-related activities can, but do not always, impact diplomacy. Disaster-related activities can influence diplomatic activities and spur them on, as long as a pre-existing basis was present for the diplomacy, with examples being cultural connections, trade links, or secret negotiations.
- Over the long-term--in terms of years--non-disaster factors have a more significant impact on diplomacy than disaster-related activities. Examples are leadership changes, distrust, belief that an historical conflict or grievance should take precedence over present-day humanitarian and peace needs, or priorities for action other than conflict resolution and diplomatic dividends.
- Disaster-related activities sometimes have the opposite outcome: they can exacerbate conflict and reduce diplomacy.
Overall, these three points state the political truism that disaster-related activities are not usually a high priority.
Disaster Diplomacy examines the role of disaster-related activities not just in international affairs and international relations, but also in political conflicts not involving more than one independent state. Disaster Diplomacy also embraces a wide definition of "disaster", not just rapid-onset events such as earthquakes and industrial explosions, but also events which are more diffuse in space and time such as droughts, epidemics, and global changes. These latter events have been termed "chronic disasters", "creeping changes", and "disaster conditions" amongst other terms.
Such projects and ideas are found in the case studies and projects and ideas sections of this website. As Disaster Diplomacy embraces a wider definition, it is guided by the Radix discussions regarding the links amongst disasters, human rights, and sustainability. Guises of disaster diplomacy used in the literature and media include "drought diplomacy", "earthquake diplomacy" and "tsunami diplomacy".
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Continuing Work
The case studies section details ongoing work based on specific Disaster Diplomacy instances or potential.
Further investigations including the projects & ideas contribute to determining how all vulnerability-, risk-, and disaster-related activities could assist in diplomatic efforts, international relations, international affairs, human rights, conflict resolution, environmental management, and sustainability. Pre-disaster activities such as prevention, mitigation, adaptation, planning, and preparedness apply to Disaster Diplomacy as much as activities during disasters and post-disaster activities such as response, reconstruction, and recovery. Possible spin-off phrases are "risk diplomacy" and "vulnerability diplomacy". Disaster should not be desired, but attempts to extract as many positive aspects as possible from a difficult situation should be made, especially since those positive aspects can reduce vulnerability and contribute to disaster risk reduction.
Nick Cater, Maureen Fordham, Jean-Christophe Gaillard, Michael Glantz, Stéphane Hallegatte, George Kent, James Lewis, Mark Pelling, and Ben Wisner
have contributed significantly to the expanded view of Disaster Diplomacy. Please contact Ilan Kelman for further information on the direction which Disaster Diplomacy is taking or with any suggestions.
These ideas and the continuing development of them have been published in numerous venues. For academic publications, see this website's publications page. Some non-academic publications are:
Kelman, I. 2006. "Disaster Diplomacy: Hope Despite Evidence?". World Watch Institute Guest Essay, full text (as a webpage).
Kelman, I. 2007. "Disaster diplomacy: Can tragedy help build bridges among countries?" UCAR Quarterly, Fall 2007, p. 6, full text (15 kb in PDF).
Kelman, I. 2007. "Weather-Related Disaster Diplomacy". Weather and Society Watch, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 4,9 full text (618 kb in PDF).
Kelman, I. 2008. "Disaster Diplomacy: Diplomats should not rely on disasters". Imprint, vol. 47, 12 April 2008, pp. 8-9, see the website of Imprint.
For more publications, see Ilan Kelman's disaster diplomacy publications website.
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