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Creeping Environmental Changes Disaster Diplomacy
http://www.disasterdiplomacy.org/cep.html

in association with
Radix:  Radical Interpretations of and Solutions for Disasters


Creeping Environmental Changes Disaster Diplomacy
(Also termed "creeping environmental problems" and "creeping environmental phenomena".)


Background

  • Definition of creeping environmental changes:
             Incremental changes in conditions which cumulate to create a major catastrophe or crisis, apparent only after a threshold has been crossed.
    From:

    Glantz, M.H. 1994. "Creeping Environmental Problems". The World & I, June, pp. 218-225,
    full text (1,275 kb in PDF).

    Glantz, M.H. 1994. "Creeping environmental phenomena: Are societies equipped to deal with them?" Pages 1-10 in M.H. Glantz (ed.), Creeping Environmental Phenomena and Societal Responses to Them, Proceedings of Workshop held 7-10 February 1994 in Boulder, Colorado. NCAR/ESIG, Boulder Colorado, full text (627 kb in PDF).

  • Description by Ilan Kelman (17 August 2007):
             Creeping environmental changes such as desertification, salinization, and climate change significantly impact all spatial scales, frequently crossing borders, making them useful cases for disaster diplomacy. Examples are droughts in southern Africa from 1991 to 1993 and from 2002 to 2003; relocation of coastal communities due to sea-level rise including on small island states; changes to the Aral and Caspian Seas; and the impact of precipitation changes on Fouta Djalon, the headwaters in Guinea from where the Niger, Senegal, and Gambia Rivers start. Disaster diplomacy failures, such as the Eritrea/Ethiopia contribute to the analysis. Spin-offs include "Environmental Diplomacy", examining whether or not environmental management issues and treaties could lead to lasting, positive diplomatic outcomes beyond environmental management.
             Lessons, mirroring other disaster diplomacy work, include:
    -A useful form of cooperation amongst hostile states or within states with conflicts occurs through scientific and technological processes, for instance fundamental research and operational forecasting. Successes related to disaster diplomacy could result because diplomats and politicians are not involved in, or are unaware of, this work.
    -Transboundary issues become prominent even when bilateral or multilateral relations are not the overriding influence on the political or environmental situation.
    -Early warning for long-term threats would not necessarily positively impact the diplomatic situation.

  • Commentary by James Lewis (15 May 2007):
             The article is important because it brings together the many dimensions and consequences of climate change which, previously and often, have been considered separately. Heavily focused on the continents, especially Africa, this makes for a mammoth piece of work but I must boldly point out one or two shortcomings.
             The situation of island states is underplayed and bypassed in the same paragraph by the larger scale global and continental impacts of sea level rise (p. 8). You will know that I have written for years on the proportional impact of hazards upon island states, the impact upon them of sea level rise being no exception. Other countries have some place else to go within their own territories, the occupants of coral atolls usually do not.
             Sea level rise, as a threat to human security, was identified by islanders themselves several years before the concept of security was "introduced first" by UNDP and others (p. 3), one of the earliest field missions on the issue in Tuvalu and Tonga being commissioned in 1988. The Maldives government had raised the issue before the 1989 "Small States Conference on Sea Level Rise", which it hosted and at which the Association of Small Island States was initiated with this concern foremost on its agenda. The Conference was reported in the journal Disasters and the issues for Tuvalu were described in Ambio (references below). Islands and islanders are not as small children in a grown up world; they are ancient civilisations, cultures and societies without which the world will be a poorer place. Neither, however, is any island "entire of itself" and therefore every islander also is a piece of the global continent and "a part of the main". Islands and islanders should be a significant part in an otherwise deeply considered work of this kind.
             In his 1624 "Meditation XVII" Devotions upon Emergent Occasions, John Donne wrote "No man is an island" - which I regret to have to say makes the reference to it inaccurate (p. 11). The full quotation is "No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend's or of thine own were: any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee".
             I have given the quotation in full because I believe it to be more useful to your purpose than in the simplified short version - even when accurately given! John Donne's words on this issue are given in full and conceptually explored in my "Island Anthology" at http://www.islandvulnerability.org/anthology.html
             I do hope that these few observations will serve to further enrich an already richly rewarding documentation of the consequences of climate change and sea level rise upon all nations, no matter what their size or political significance.

    Lewis, J. 1989. "Sea-level Rise: Some Implications for Tuvalu". Ambio, vol. 18, no. 8, pp. 458-459; Appropriate Technology, vol. 16, no. 2 (September), pp. 26-28; and The Environmentalist, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 269-275.

    Lewis, J. 1990. "Small States Conference on Sea Level Rise". The Environmentalist, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 141-143 and Disasters, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 77-78.

    Lewis, J. 1990. "The Vulnerability of Small Island States to Sea Level Rise: The Need for Holistic Strategies". Disasters, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 241-248.

    Lewis, J. 2003. Island Anthology. Published on Island Vulnerability.

  • Commentary by Ilan Kelman (2 December 2009):
             Can disaster diplomacy work to address climate change? AlertNet, full text (11 kb in PDF).


Climate Conflict


Other Examples

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