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Disaster Diplomacy Publications
http://www.disasterdiplomacy.org/publications.html

in association with
Radix:  Radical Interpretations of and Solutions for Disasters

Disaster Diplomacy Publications Index
(Peer-reviewed academic publications which address predominantly disaster diplomacy.)

Preface in Kelman and Koukis (2000) (edited from the original with permission)

Do natural disasters induce international cooperation amongst countries that have traditionally been 'enemies'? This notion of Disaster Diplomacy has never been fully addressed despite its potential to significantly impact international affairs.

The occurrence or threat of natural disasters creates opportunities to facilitate better cooperation or relations amongst states in conflict through fostering linkages which otherwise might not have existed. The cooperative spirit generated from common efforts to deal with disasters--through either perceived necessity or choice from the humanitarian imperative--possibly overrides pre-existing prejudices, breaking down barriers which then may never be rebuilt. Even when the initiative derives from only the general populace, it could influence bilateral and multilateral relations in areas such as trade, environmental management, and cultural exchange.

As a result of this process, certain conditions may be created for economic, political, or ideological divides and conflicts to be gradually superseded by cooperative structures and mechanisms. 'Spillover' from merely technical or scientific collaboration or humanitarian assistance to successful diplomatic rapprochement could occur. Alternatively, perhaps nothing except changes at the highest level will ever eradicate deeply entrenched interstate enmity, with the inertia of Disastrous Diplomacy being the usual state of affairs.

This section embraces the challenge of examining which prerequisites and circumstances could yield a successful transformation, due to natural disaster, of international relations by investigating specific case studies covering three natural disasters--earthquakes, drought, and the El Niño phenomenon--on three continents in order to provide a valid empirical basis for hypothesising on the concept of Disaster Diplomacy. These case studies are then analysed in the context of a theoretical model which could assist in identifying when and why Disaster Diplomacy would occur.

Comment on this preface.

"Greek-Turkish Rapprochement: The Impact of 'Disaster Diplomacy'?"
         by James Ker-Lindsay in Kelman and Koukis (2000)
"To claim that the earthquakes brought about rapprochement is both factually wrong, and indeed weakens the basis for the process."
Full text (867 kb in PDF).

Abstract

This article challenges the widely held view that the Greek-Turkish rapprochement of 1999 was the direct result of the collaboration following the earthquakes that hit both countries that year. The high-level political and diplomatic efforts which form the basis of the improved relations and which preceded the earthquakes are examined. The article goes on to provide a detailed account of the efforts at governmental and non-governmental levels to mitigate the effects of the disasters and illustrates the impact of the two disastrous events on public perceptions of the ‘enemy’ and on bilateral relations. In this context, the author warns against the simplistic assumption that diplomatic efforts should be causally linked with the occurrence of disasters. Instead, he asserts that disasters may have a multiplying and legitimising effect on diplomatic rapprochement.

Dr. James Ker-Lindsay
Director, Civilitas Research
2nd Floor, 1 Kadmou Street
P.O. Box 16183, Nicosia 2086, Cyprus
J.Ker-Lindsaykingston.ac.uk
www.civilitasresearch.org
Tel: +357-22-446-840
Fax: +357-22-446-835

For further material, see the Greece/Turkey case study.

Comment on this case study.

"Climate-Related Disaster Diplomacy: A US-Cuban Case Study."
          by Michael H. Glantz in Kelman and Koukis (2000)
"A broad-ranging rapprochement is not likely to result from a specific response to a climate-related problem."
Full text (1,021 kb in PDF).

Abstract

This article traces the history of climate-related cooperation between the US and Cuba as a possible example of disaster diplomacy. It identifies and analyses the areas of present interactions and conflicts, as well as potential diplomatically-sanctioned cooperation between the two countries, with particular respect to the ENSO cycle (El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, which incorporates El Niño and La Niña), and the extreme meteorological events that it spawns. Currently, US and Cuban government disaster collaboration is limited to the hurricane season and to monitoring and forecasting the development of storms in the tropical Atlantic. Based on careful examination of extensive empirical material, the article concludes that while disaster diplomacy may be successful in some regions, it has little chance of success in the US-Cuban context in the absence of a rapprochement between the leaders of these two political systems.

Michael Glantz presented "Disaster Diplomacy" at the seminar "Hurricanes Through Time: From Pre-Columbian Beliefs in the Caribbean to Modern Scientific Discovery" at the Smithsonian Center for Latino Initiatives on Friday 18 February 2000, held at the S. Dillon Ripley Center (Lecture Hall) at 1100 Jefferson Dr. SW, Washington, D.C., U.S.A., 20560. This seminar was a product of the Smithsonian Center for Latino Initiatives Hurakan Project.

For further material, see the Cuba/USA case study.

Comment on this case study.

"Drought Emergency, Yes...Drought Disaster, No: Southern Africa 1991-93."
          by Ailsa Holloway in Kelman and Koukis (2000)
"While diplomatic dividends can indeed flow from disaster relief efforts, in this instance, joint cooperation was only possible once potential military, economic, and other forms of regional confrontation that dominated the 1980s had been controlled."
Full text (1,114 kb in PDF).

Abstract

This article analyses the rapid political change and redefinition of a regional identity in southern Africa in the 1990s in the context of the severe drought which affected these countries 1991-92. As South Africa and its neighbours looked towards the normalisation of relations, concerted, regional, emergency actions prevented the drought conditions from producing a devastating drought disaster. These events not only served as a confidence-building measure demonstrating that southern Africa can coherently function as a region to avert crisis, but also provided the first opportunity for the former adversaries to successfully cooperate on (non-military) security matters. Nonetheless, although this case study illustrates that positive diplomatic initiatives can result from disaster relief efforts, the drought cannot be seen as the main driving force behind the normalisation of relations between South Africa and its neighbours.

Dr. Ailsa Holloway
Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme (DiMP)
Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Cape Town
Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
hollowayenviro.uct.ac.za
www.egs.uct.ac.za/dimp
Tel: +27-21-650-2987 or -4115 or -4116
Fax: +27-21-689-1217

Comment on this case study.

"Disaster: Agent of Diplomacy or Change in International Affairs?"
          by Louise K. Comfort in Kelman and Koukis (2000)
"Disaster--or threat of disaster--provides opportunities for enhancing collaboration among states, but the properties and mechanisms for adaptation must either exist or be developed for effective results."
Full text (906 kb in PDF).

Abstract

Disaster is presented as a process of transition which changes relations both within and among states engaged in mitigation and response. The article advances the concept of complex adaptive systems (CAS) as an analytical tool that captures the high degrees of complexity and dynamics characteristic of potential or actual disasters. Consequently, the three case studies in this special section of the Cambridge Review of International Affairs which analyse critically the argument for disaster diplomacy as an opportunity to increase cooperation among rival states are re-examined in a CAS framework. Based on the application of CAS to the case studies, the article concludes that creative diplomacy for disaster reduction is most effective at the 'edge of chaos', that narrow region where there is sufficient structure to hold and exchange information, but also sufficient flexibility to adapt new alternatives to meet urgent needs.

Prof. Louise Comfort
Graduate School of Public and International Affairs
3E30 Wesley W. Posvar Hall
University of Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.A., 15260
lkcpitt.edu
www.gspia.pitt.edu/new_asp/faculty_staff/bio.asp?id=10
Tel: +1-412-648-7606
Fax: +1-412-648-2605

Comment on this article.

• Kelman and Koukis (2000) is summarised.


• The case studies India/Pakistan, North Korea are detailed and other case studies are summarised.


• Passive and active Disaster Diplomacy are defined and discussed.


• The definition of 'disaster' is expanded to consider day-to-day development challenges.


• The definition of 'diplomacy' is expanded to consider all international affairs activities.


• The contrast and interchange between local and global issues is discussed in the context of the Disaster Diplomacy expansion.


• Environmental Diplomacy is suggested as an inevitable consequence of the previous discussion.

The conclusion was that disaster management, international development, environmental management, and international affairs strongly intersect and interact, hence all must be considered at all spatial scales to develop appropriate solutions.

Comment on this chapter.

Kelman, I. 2005. "Tsunami Diplomacy: Will the 26 December, 2004 Tsunami Bring Peace to the Affected Countries?". Sociological Research Online, vol. 10, issue 1, http://www.socresonline.org.uk/10/1/kelman.html

Abstract

Disaster diplomacy examines whether or not disasters induce international cooperation amongst enemy countries. The 26 December, 2004 tsunami around the Indian Ocean impacted more than a dozen countries, many with internal or external conflicts, thereby providing an opportunity to explore how the same event affects different countries in different disaster diplomacy contexts. Two groups of case studies are presented: those from which few disaster diplomacy outcomes are likely and those which warrant monitoring and investigation. Indonesian tsunami diplomacy is used as a case study for further discussion, in terms of both American-Indonesian relations and the conflict in Aceh. Further work is suggested in the tsunami's aftermath in order to understand better the disaster diplomacy outcomes which are feasible and why they rarely yield positive, lasting results.

Comment on this paper.

For further material, see the Indian Ocean tsunami 26 December 2004 case study.

For further material, see the China/Taiwan case study.

Comment on these papers.

After past work is summarised, disaster diplomacy theory is elaborated by providing a new typology and then the new theory is placed in the context of two recent case studies: India/Pakistan following the 8 October 2005 earthquake and Eritrea/Ethiopia from 1999 to 2002 during droughts. Next, practical ways of using or not using disaster diplomacy are described by exploring disaster diplomacy failings and how those failings could be overcome or exacerbated by using the disaster diplomacy toolkit. The paper concludes by summarising the limitations and prospects of disaster diplomacy. Overall, disaster diplomacy has a significant impact, but realistic expectations are necessary to understand what this process can and cannot do--and what it should and should not do.

Comment on this paper.

Kelman, I. 2006. "Island Security and Disaster Diplomacy in the Context of Climate Change". Les Cahiers de la Sécurité, vol. 63, pp. 61-94.
Full text in French (643 kb in PDF).
Full text in English (89 kb in PDF).
With thanks to Stéphane Hallegatte.

Abstract

This paper explores how inter-state relationships could be affected when extreme events exacerbated by climate change cause concerns for island security through potential evacuation. The focus is "disaster diplomacy", how disaster-related activities do and do not bring together enemy states, by examining the influence on inter-state relations of islander evacuation due to climate change. Two main areas are examined. First, possibilities are reviewed for re-creating island communities, either by becoming integrated into another state or by re-creating their island community on existing land or on newly created land. Second, the resulting operational ethics issues are explored, incorporating consequent legal questions. The ethical-legal themes covered relate to the responsibility, funding, decision-making authority, and prioritization of sovereignty for island evacuees.

The results lead to four interlinked conclusions. First, islands can lead to significant inter-state concerns and deserve more prominence than they usually receive. Second, the discussion applies beyond extreme events exacerbated by climate change, suggesting that climate change is only one component within all island security concerns. Third, disaster diplomacy continues to yield mixed results, with disaster-related activities rarely creating new diplomacy, but providing a potential for catalyzing existing diplomatic processes. That potential is not always realized. Finally and overall, climate change compounds already-existing security threats facing islands and forces those threats onto inter-state relations with mainly failures in subsequent disaster diplomacy; however, climate change exacerbated extreme events do not introduce new or unique island challenges.

Comment on this paper.

Comment on this paper.

Kelman, I. and J.-C. Gaillard. 2007. "Disaster diplomacy in Aceh". Humanitarian Exchange, No. 37 (March 2007), pp. 37-39.
Full text (77 kb in PDF).

Summary

This paper summarises disaster diplomacy in Aceh after the 26 December 2004 earthquake and tsunami.

For further material, see the Indian Ocean Tsunami 26 December 2004 case study.

Comment on this paper.

For further material, see the Indian Ocean Tsunami 26 December 2004 case study.

Comment on this paper.

For further material, see the Hurricane Katrina case study.

Comment on this paper.

Ilan Kelman wrote a Letter to the Editor (17 kb in PDF) to the journal. The journal's policy is not to publish Letters to the Editor, but the editor kindly agreed to publish the following:

Kelman, I. 2007. "Letter to the Editor". Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 51, p. 973.
As per the copyright agreement with the journal, the full text will appear here in 2009, but the final, definitive version is available at http://online.sagepub.com or directly from http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/vol51/issue6

Comment on this paper.

For further material, see the Indian Ocean Tsunami 26 December 2004 case study.

Enia, J. 2008. "Peace in its Wake? The 2004 Tsunami and Internal Conflict in Indonesia and Sri Lanka". Journal of Public and International Affairs, vol. 19, spring 2008, pp. 7-27, full text (129 kb in PDF).

Abstract

Almost every recent natural disaster that has occurred within a zone of conflict has been followed by expressions of hope from both diplomats and journalists that the disaster might somehow lead to peace. In order to assess whether the concept of "disaster diplomacy" has any merit, more systematic comparative research is needed, contrasting cases where disaster diplomacy seems to have been present with cases where it has not. As a step in this direction, this article explores the differing outcomes with respect to the separatist conflicts in Indonesia and Sri Lanka that followed the 2004 tsunami. In each of these cases, the tsunami provided an opportunity for separatist groups to supply critical public and private relief goods and thereby send a powerful signal about the functional legitimacy of their respective claims to autonomy. In this way, the tsunami affected the separatists’ relative bargaining strength, creating an atmosphere more inclined toward peace in Indonesia and renewed civil war in Sri Lanka. The differing narratives suggest that the world pay more attention to post-disaster conflict zones given their positive and negative dynamic potential.

For further material, see the Indian Ocean Tsunami 26 December 2004 case study.

Comment on this paper.

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